Global Calgary News

U.S recession: merely very bad or catastrophic?

Within one minute of opening Friday morning, the Toronto Stock Exchange plunged another 100 points, and it was looking to be a repeat of Thursday’s near 400 point loss. However, fifteen minutes later, investors completely changed their minds and pushed the TSX above its opening level. It was a wild triple-digit loss – and then gain – in the time it takes to buy a coffee. Flaherty was trying to walk the fine line between being realistic, while giving markets some comfort. He peppered his remarks with phrases like: global turmoil will “inevitably” impact Canada, economy will be “softer” than anticipated, and the economy is “fragile.” However, at the same time he emphasized that Canada has a “great advantage” over other countries, and reiterated that “fiscal discipline is important.” He also pointed out that Canada has the strongest financial system in the world. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney stated that the European debt crisis has intensified, and that the U.S. is facing the weakest economic recovery in decades. The spill-over onto the Canadian financial markets has been “notable.” Headwinds are now blowing harder. Many of the potential downside risks that the Bank of Canada had identified in its most recent outlook have been realized in July and August. Flaherty responded that the government would “do what is needed to protect our jobs and our economy and our families in Canada, as we have done successfully previously and recently.” The markets will take this as a hint (albeit a very small one) that the government of Canada would step in with more rounds of stimulus spending, similar to what was done in 2008 and 2009 with the “Canada’s Economic Action Plan.” At that time, the government spent some $20 billion on infrastructure spending over two years. The most recent data are not encouraging. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index nose-dived to -30.

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